By Jorge Rolón Luna.*
There is no doubt that the assassination has become a phenomenon that presents diverse angles and that such a multiform face has become a characteristic. In May 2023 a police investigation thwarted an attack that was underway, at least according to the investigators, which would have been a new twist to the phenomenon. It was an attack on a massive event in Asunción, which would make the tragic event that occurred at the Ja’umína Fest music festival (January 30, 2022), as the work of boy scouts: “supposedly the plan was that the assassins should use long weapons since the target is always protected by two thugs which would generate a crossfire in which many of the attendees could be hit by bullets from the crossfire…“. This was a criminal operation, far from their bases, with intelligence work, logistics and a high number of unusual direct operatives to comply with an order. Not that it was unusual (think of the Rafaat operation in 2016), but there is no doubt that the capacity and versatility of criminal drug trafficking groups is only increasing.
We could say that the increase is in number and diversity. If we focus on the crimes committed by hired assassins during the year 2022, we can register attacks on police stations, the homes of prison guards, private vehicles of police officers, stores and businesses, and even attacks with explosives in gel. Although in many cases the final objective was the typical and characteristic of this modality, that is, murder, the analysis of the facts suggests that, in many other cases, the only purpose was to threaten, terrorize and intimidate the victims.
Quantitatively, if we compare 2022 with 2021, we see that there were more hitmen (more attacks) and the same number of victims (dead and wounded), but there were fewer deaths, i.e. more people were wounded. Considering the facts reported by the media, in 2022 there were 212 cases of hired killings and in 2021, 188, that is, an annual increase of 13% (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Acts related to hired assassinations recorded in 2021 and 2022
Source: Own, based on data from journalistic sources.
Despite this increase in attacks, the number of victims (counting deaths and injuries) was the same in both 2022 and 2021. This suggests that either the hitmen had a higher “error” rate, i.e., they did not meet the objective of producing victims, or the attacks had a motivation other than to produce deaths. In fact, in 2022 there was a decrease (-4%) in fatalities compared to the previous year. However, there was a significant increase (13%) in the number of injured.
Throughout 2022 there were 175 deaths and 53 wounded in the 212 registered attacks. Although the statistics show that the number of deaths because of hired assassination decreased in 2022, it must be emphasized that this is far from being encouraging data on the state of citizen security, since 175 fatalities is undoubtedly a chilling number that indicates that it is not a marginal or controlled phenomenon
How is it that the lethality and effectiveness of attacks or interventions by hired killers decreased, given that there were more attacks in 2022 than in the previous year?
A first explanatory hypothesis could be that the phenomenon of “sicariato”, as it expands quantitatively and territorially, recruits less “qualified” (less “professional”, less experienced) “labor”, increasing the possibility of error or failure at the time of execution of the murders.
Although the latter could explain some isolated event, a deeper analysis shows that what is happening is the complexification of the phenomenon. Indeed, in 2022 there were numerous cases of rampage of homes, businesses and arson of property, where the objective, evidently, was not to kill. In such complex scenario, we include events where the “manpower” required has been hyper-professional due to the difficulties that had to be overcome to fulfill the purposes desired by criminal organizations, something that should be of concern because it is evident that in this scenario, not even high officials or other well-protected targets are not safe.
On the other hand, as noted, the use of hired assassins in 2022 would have expanded its scope of action to incorporate practices such as intimidation, extortion, “sending messages”, warnings, and threats (terrorism?) and would no longer be limited to the purpose of assassination. These “other faces” of hired assassination would no longer be aimed at killing the people targeted. They are aimed at terrorizing and amplifying the role of hired assassination to a model of “territorial control” as we pointed out in a previous article.
Throughout 2022 there were 175 deaths and 53 wounded in the 212 registered attacks. Although the statistics show that the number of deaths because of hired assassination decreased in 2022, it must be emphasized that this is far from being encouraging data on the state of citizen security, since 175 fatalities is undoubtedly a chilling number that indicates that it is not a marginal or controlled phenomenon. Nor is it an indicator of a retraction in the activity of hired assassins, given that this drop in deaths is counterbalanced by an increase in the number of wounded.
During 2022 we have had a hitman attack every 42 hours, a victim (dead or wounded) every 38 hours, and a death every 2 days. The sicariato, without a doubt, is transforming, becoming more complex and its nature is changing while it enjoys good health as it leaves its trail of deaths, physically and psychologically damaged people, as well as communities imprisoned by its violence and terror.
* Independent researcher, teacher, writer, author of the book of short stories “Los sicarios”.
Cover image: ABC Color