The electoral contribution of the PLRA to the Concertación (I): participation levels

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By Mar­cos Pérez Talia

It is not con­tro­ver­sial to say that the PLRA is the most im­por­tant party of the Con­certación. Its his­tory, its num­ber of mem­bers and vot­ers, and its vast party struc­ture made up of par­lia­men­tar­i­ans, gov­er­nors, may­ors, and coun­cil­men through­out the coun­try en­dorse its pre­em­i­nence among the Con­certa­cionists. But de­spite its cen­tral­ity in Paraguayan pol­i­tics, not much is known about the path­way of its in­ter­nal elec­toral life.

In this first in­stall­ment on the elec­toral con­tri­bu­tion of the PLRA to the Con­certación, em­pha­sis is placed on the per­cent­ages of par­tic­i­pa­tion in the par­ty’s in­ter­nal elec­tions. Thus, it high­lights the dif­fer­ent dy­nam­ics that make par­tic­i­pa­tion vary. For ex­am­ple, it is shown how par­tic­i­pa­tion de­pends on whether the party is in op­po­si­tion or in gov­ern­ment, and whether na­tional or par­ti­san can­di­da­cies are at stake.

Let’s go straight to the sta­tis­ti­cal data, al­though for a cor­rect read­ing and ex­plo­ration of the per­cent­ages it is im­por­tant to sort the dif­fer­ent in­ter­nal elec­tions into three types:

• In­ter­nal elec­tions to elect pres­i­den­tial, par­lia­men­tary, gu­ber­na­to­r­ial and de­part­men­tal can­di­dates;
• In­tern­ships to elect party po­si­tions;
• In­ter­nal elec­tions for party and mu­nic­i­pal of­fices.

The per­cent­ages of par­tic­i­pa­tion in the pri­maries to elect pres­i­den­tial, par­lia­men­tary, gu­ber­na­to­r­ial, and de­part­men­tal can­di­dates are shown in the fol­low­ing chart.

Fig­ure 1. Par­tic­i­pa­tion in the in­ter­nal elec­tions to elect na­tional can­di­dates (2002-2017)

Source: Pre­pared by the au­thors based on data from the PLRA’s TEI.

Here it can be seen that the per­cent­ages range be­tween 36% and 42%, where the high­est par­tic­i­pa­tion (42.3% in 2012) cor­re­sponded to the time when the PLRA was in gov­ern­ment.

These data may help us to think about what may happen on December 18 in the Concertación’s presidential primaries. Since national (and not party) positions will be at stake, the historical trend of participation in the PLRA is close to 40%. The national roll of the PLRA closed with 1,548,023 affiliated members, so it is expected, at least, a minimum participation of 600,000 liberal voters.

The per­cent­ages of the sec­ond type of in­ter­nal elec­tions -those in which only party can­di­da­cies were elected- are in­cluded in the fol­low­ing graph.

Fig­ure II. Par­tic­i­pa­tion in in­ter­nal elec­tions for party po­si­tions (2005 and 2016).

Source: Pre­pared by the au­thors based on data from the PLRA’s TEI.

The data show very sim­i­lar num­bers with only a dif­fer­ence of 0.7%, even though 11 years have passed be­tween elec­tions.

Fi­nally, the per­cent­ages of par­tic­i­pa­tion in the in­ter­nal elec­tions where party and mu­nic­i­pal can­di­dates were elected si­mul­ta­ne­ously are in­cluded in the fol­low­ing graph.

Fig­ure 3. Par­tic­i­pa­tion in in­ter­nal elec­tions for party and mu­nic­i­pal of­fices (2010 and 2021)

Source: Pre­pared by the au­thors based on data from the PLRA’s TEI.

This last graph shows two in­ter­nal elec­tions in which the same po­si­tions (party and mu­nic­i­pal) were at stake, al­though with an im­por­tant dif­fer­ence in par­tic­i­pa­tion be­tween one and the other.

All these data pre­vi­ously ex­posed show that the per­cent­ages of par­tic­i­pa­tion in the lib­eral in­ter­nals are not af­fected by the evo­lu­tion of time but by two vari­ables: the types of po­si­tions at stake and the con­di­tion of be­ing in the gov­ern­ment or in the op­po­si­tion. The fol­low­ing graph pre­sents a sum­mary of this.

Fig­ure 4. Type of elec­tion and par­tic­i­pa­tion (2002 to 2021)

Source: Pre­pared by the au­thors based on data from the PLRA’s TEI.

Fig­ure 4 shows cer­tain trends. First, when the party was in gov­ern­ment (in­ter­nal elec­tions in 2010 and 2012) par­tic­i­pa­tion rose above the his­tor­i­cal av­er­age be­cause the dif­fer­ent party sec­tors had more re­sources, po­si­tions, and in­cen­tives for par­tic­i­pa­tion at their dis­posal.

Sec­ondly, if we leave aside the elec­tions in times of gov­ern­ment, we see that the par­tic­i­pa­tion in the op­po­si­tion is not the same in the in­ter­nal elec­tions for party po­si­tions ver­sus the in­ter­nal elec­tions for na­tional po­si­tions. In the par­ti­san pri­maries where only in­ter­nal party au­thor­i­ties were elected (year 2005 and 2016) the av­er­age par­tic­i­pa­tion was 30%. And in the elec­tions in which party and mu­nic­i­pal po­si­tions were dis­puted (year 2021) the par­tic­i­pa­tion was 31.5%, very sim­i­lar to the pre­vi­ous case (30%).

How­ever, in the in­ter­nal elec­tions where pres­i­den­tial, par­lia­men­tary, and gu­ber­na­to­r­ial can­di­da­cies were elected (dis­count­ing that of 2012 in the gov­ern­ment), the av­er­age par­tic­i­pa­tion rose to al­most 40%. Prac­ti­cally a 10% in­crease in par­tic­i­pa­tion with re­spect to the elec­tions merely for party po­si­tions. The in­cen­tive of mo­bi­liza­tion and par­tic­i­pa­tion when na­tional can­di­da­cies are at stake (es­pe­cially the pres­i­den­tial one) clearly gen­er­ated a plus in the lib­eral elec­torate.

In syn­the­sis, par­tic­i­pa­tion in the lib­eral in­ter­nal elec­tions is not the same in all cases. The analy­sis of the data from 2002 on­wards shows that there is a pat­tern that ex­plains the me­chan­ics of par­tic­i­pa­tion, and it is re­lated to be­ing in the gov­ern­ment or the op­po­si­tion and the type of po­si­tions in dis­pute.

These data may help us to think about what may hap­pen on De­cem­ber 18 in the Con­certación’s pres­i­den­tial pri­maries. Since na­tional (and not party) po­si­tions will be at stake, the his­tor­i­cal trend of par­tic­i­pa­tion in the PLRA is close to 40%. The na­tional roll of the PLRA closed with 1,548,023 af­fil­i­ated mem­bers, so it is ex­pected, at least, a min­i­mum par­tic­i­pa­tion of 600,000 lib­eral vot­ers.

In the sec­ond ar­ti­cle of this is­sue, em­pha­sis will be placed on the elec­toral con­tri­bu­tion of the main leader of the PLRA to­day, Efraín Ale­gre, to the Con­certación, re­view­ing, to that ef­fect, once again the tra­jec­tory of the in­ter­nal life of the PLRA.

Cover im­age: Mega­ca­dena