By Marcos Pérez Talia
Everything seems to indicate that the Paraguayan opposition will compete in 2023 using the figure of the concertación, or accord. Of all the pending issues to be resolved by the concertacionistas, one of them -perhaps the main one- is related to the selection of candidates.
Within the framework of the Concertación, two possible formulas for electing the presidential candidate are on the table: (i) through internal elections with an open electoral roll, an option advocated by Efraín Alegre and some parties; and (ii) through a poll that reveals the two best positioned candidates, as proposed by Kattya González and her party.
For now, it seems that the poll option is not too popular. Distrust towards this statistical mechanism is enormous in Paraguay after the embarrassment mounted in the 2018 elections, when pollsters distorted the electoral landscape by publishing totally outlandish results without empirical support (for example, that Mario Abdo Benítez won by 30 points over Efraín Alegre, when the reality showed a difference of less than 4 percentage points). Moreover, in other countries they have also lost face. From different areas of the social sciences, some explanations are beginning to be put forward as to why they fail too much and no longer fulfill their analytical objective. In political terms, the use of surveys to define candidacies does not generate “electoral muscle” compared to internal elections that mobilize party structures for the general elections.
The option that finds the most support is that of internal elections. This terrain is especially known by the Liberals, who are the only opposition party that elects candidates through competitive internal elections. To weigh this extra advantage in advance, Efraín Alegre proposed that the electoral roll should be national, something that also has the explicit support of Patria Querida and Soledad Núñez. This would make the internal elections not only more inclusive in terms of citizens, but also less controllable by the liberal party structure.
In the midst of the back and forth about the selection mechanism, the actors are outlining their options according to the position they believe they have in the eyes of the electorate. So far, it seems very evident that Efrain Alegre is the one who has the best chances of winning in the internal elections of the Concertación. The reasons, far from having an enigmatic origin, are very simple and obvious: (i) he has a narrative that broadens the notion of political dispute, (ii) he is capable of winning political arm wrestling (even if he does not capitalize yet in presidential terms); and (iii) it is a candidacy without a Plan B.
Regarding the first factor, political and electoral discourses are basically narratives. They serve to persuade and mobilize voters and supporters towards a certain sense of political participation in general and voting in particular. Alegre’s narrative is synthesized with his hashtag #PatriaOMafia; however, his narrative can be broken down into elements that are not only electoral, but also dispute certain common senses of Paraguayan politics. For example, in this story there is a hero in the narrative: the “homeland”, that is, most of the people who suffer the constant subjugation of the “mafia”. The villain is none other than Cartes, who has firmly co-opted the Colorado Party, the democratic institutions and President Mario Abdo himself, who is incapable of confronting him. To redeem the “homeland” from the tentacles of the “mafia”, the fall of the ANR in 2023 is necessary as a starting point. Alegre’s own personal history -having suffered persecution and even imprisonment- legitimizes him in the crusade.
The second key factor has to do with his ability to politically win the confrontation at crucial moments: (i) the amendment in 2017 that prevented Cartes’ reelection, even though it was Mario Abdo who later reaped the triumph, (ii) his imprisonment in 2021 in the context of a senseless judicial process, where he chose not to compromise and confront the judicial regime, (iii) reelection as president of the PLRA in June 2021, even when practically all the internal teams united against him, or (iv) his growth as leader and authority in the PLRA Board of Directors, where he managed to break the internal opposition and remove the so-called “libero-cartistas” from key positions. In a certain way, if the alternative to efrainismo are groups linked to Blas Llano and Dionisio Amarilla, it will always have the opposite effect: to reinforce Alegre’s narrative.
The pro-government media machinery does not cease in its campaign of “Efrain is a loser“, although in parallel there is a constant attempt to remove him from the political scene by means of internal and legal artifices. These events against him, while they could perhaps cause him some public wear and tear, reinforce his image of being the “only one who does not sell out”.
Finally, there is the factor that his presidential candidacy does not have a plan B (the Vice-Presidency or going to the Senate). This generates certainty in the face of territorial alliances in the PLRA. As any mass party, the territorial leadership (Committee presidents, councilmen, mayors, deputies, governors) close alliances with national leaderships to occupy new positions. This benefits both the councilman who wants to become a deputy -because he knows that the leader does not negotiate to divert his trajectory- and the national candidate, because his candidacy is driven by a vast network of territorial operators.
Have the Concertación’s presidential elections been resolved? Clearly not. There are still many months to go, there is a lot of work to be done and many candidates are exploring possible formulas.
Kattya González has been working for some time and, according to some polls, she has an interesting level of acceptance. Her greatest weakness is that she does not have a history within the PLRA, which reduces her electoral pull in the face of possible internal elections. To the extent that Efraín continues realigning his internal correlation of forces because of the agreements reached with the Buzarquis, Víctor Ríos, Carlos Portillo, etc., the sectors of Blas Llano or Dionisio Amarilla would be “available” to Kattya. For now, it seems a lot of risk for little gain. The other not discardable option could be that Kattya aims at Efrain’s vice presidency.
The option that finds the most support is that of internal elections. This terrain is especially known by the Liberals, who are the only opposition party that elects candidates through competitive internal elections. To weigh this extra advantage in advance, Efraín Alegre proposed that the electoral roll should be national, something that also has the explicit support of Patria Querida and Soledad Núñez.
Finally, the appearance of Euclides Acevedo generated debates and questions. That his candidacy has not bothered the colorado establishment is quite suspicious, although even more striking is the apparent support of Fernando Lugo, when the Frente Guasú has two candidacies in process: Esperanza Martínez and Sixto Pereira. There was also talk of an alleged support of Blas Llano to the formula Euclides Acevedo and Hugo Fleitas, although he will have a lot of work to explain to the liberal bases why they would have to support a non-liberal, who is also Mario Abdo’s chancellor, and very far from generating the enthusiasm generated by Lugo in 2008.
The concertación is starting its engines and the motley list of parties and candidates suggests that the formula will be competitive. In the following weeks, the operability of the space will have to be defined, which will shed more light on the process.
Cover image: Moisés Ruiz.