By Marcos Pérez Talia
In the first installment of these two articles we explored the different levels of participation in the PLRA internal elections, and we showed that there is a pattern that explains the mechanics of participation, which is related to being in the government or the opposition and the type of positions in dispute. In this second installment, we will examine the electoral path of Efraín Alegre in the internal dynamics of the PLRA.
We propose as a main point of analysis that the percentage of votes collected by Efraín Alegre is not the same in all primaries but varies depending on the type of election at stake. Figure 1 below shows the different percentages of votes received.
Efraín Alegre’s results compared to his main contender (2012 to 2021)
Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from the PLRA’s TEI.
According to Graph 1, Efraín Alegre as PLRA candidate for president obtained 147,360 (36.2%) in 2016 and 158,500 (34.4%) in 2021. While as candidate for president of the Republic he obtained 379,253 (81.3%) in 2012 and 306,819 (60.9%) in 2017. A very significant growth (almost double) of his electoral flow is observed when he runs as a candidate for the presidency of the Republic.
Everything suggests that the Efraín Alegre and Soledad Núñez duo will comfortably make it to the Concertación’s presidential candidacy. Alegre had the patience and tenacity to gather the necessary electoral forces (internal and external) to win the presidential candidacy once more.
These data allow us to assume that, for the presidency of the PLRA, the liberal electorate has different options in mind, even if they then vote for Alegre. However, for the presidency of the Republic, there seems to be no possible debate among the Liberals, who overwhelmingly choose Efraín Alegre. Competitive elections with uncertain results only occur in internal party elections, but not in the primaries for the presidency of the Republic.
Consequently, the expectation of votes for Efraín Alegre does not have to be calculated based on the internal party elections of 2021 and 2016 (in which he triumphed with 34% and 36% respectively) but by observing the elections for national positions in 2012 and 2017 (in which he triumphed with a wide margin, reaching at least 60%), which positioned him as a candidate for president of the republic.
Efraín Alegre again achieved, as in 2012 and 2017, an important internal arrangement to channel the electoral flow of the different leaderships towards his third presidential candidacy. After the party internal elections of June 2021 (in which Alegre won by less than 1%) it was speculated that there would eventually be a fragmentation of votes which would weaken his chances, but two events in particular show a new concentration towards Efraín.
The first event took place in the PLRA Convention held on March 13, 2022. There, gender parity was approved for the parliamentary lists and the balance of the previous administration was rejected. But the most important thing was to measure the forces of the sides in dispute, that is, the forces of ephrainism versus anti-ephrainism.
Graph II. Percentage of Convention Members by internal groups (2021 to 2022)
Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from the PLRA’s TEI.
Alegre had triumphed in the presidency of the PLRA (in June 2021) with 34.4%, with which it is logical to point out that efrainismo had 34.4% of the convention members of his team, and the rest would occupy the anti-officialism position. However, the results of the Convention in March 2022 (only 9 months after the elections) showed that 46% of the convention members voted for Efraín Alegre’s position, and 54% for the internal opposition. In less than a year, Alegre improved his internal strength in terms of convention members, climbing from 34.4% to 46%.
The second event has to do with the arrangements within the party’s Board of Directors. Just one month after the party Convention referred to in the previous paragraph, Efraín Alegre decided to improve his correlation of forces in the Board of Directors, since he did not have his own majority. After intense negotiations between factions and agreements with regional leaderships, he managed to achieve his own majority of party directors. As a consequence, Dionisio Amarilla and Basiliza Vázquez, treasurer and general secretary of the PLRA respectively, were removed from their posts.
With a comfortable and stable party majority, Alegre undertook the last step towards the presidential primaries: to reach internal electoral agreements that would improve his correlation of forces with respect to the 2021 internal elections. To that effect, he obtained the support for the presidential primaries of his former rivals such as Salyn Buzarquis (his opponent in the internal party elections of 2016 and 2021), Paková Ledesma, Alejo Ríos (governor of Caaguazú), the political team of Víctor Ríos (today in the CSJ), and multiple mayors, councilors and members of the lower house who previously belonged to the movement of Dionisio Amarilla. In addition, outside the party vote, which may be important because the open electoral roll will be used, he reached an agreement for the presidential ticket with Soledad Núñez (and the Alianza Encuentro Nacional) and in September he obtained the support of Miguel Prieto and all his political team in Alto Paraná.
Everything suggests that the Efraín Alegre and Soledad Núñez duo will comfortably make it to the Concertación’s presidential candidacy. Alegre had the patience and tenacity to gather the necessary electoral forces (internal and external) to win the presidential candidacy once more.
That is why, to estimate their vote expectation next December, it is necessary to observe the percentages of the 2012 and 2017 primaries, and not those of 2016 and 2021 (see graph 1). It remains to be seen with what numbers the Concertación primaries will finally close.
Cover image: Efraín Alegre’s Facebook